The Notebook Boom: Mobility, the Key to Productivity?

 
  Newfangled technology is nice, but it takes more than
  that to impress companies watching the bottom line.
  Also driving notebook sales is the business realization
  that people tend to be more productive with notebooks,
  White says.

  "They're more likely to take it home, and they're more
  likely to get better at using it," he says. You can take a
  mobile computer anywhere, so you're likely to work
  more.

  The ability to work outside the office is very appealing,
  says Anthony McMahon, North American marketing
  manager for Hewlett-Packard's OmniBooks line.
  "People will work longer hours if it's in an environment
  they enjoy," he says.

  And notebooks are getting better at hitting that bottom
  line, as well. Prices have dropped on high-performance
  notebooks, says Martin Booth, product marketing
  manager for AMD, which takes some credit for cutting
  chip costs.

  "Now you can get a high-performance notebook for less
  than $2000," analyst Reynolds agrees. In fact,
  International Data Corporation researchers find most
  notebook sales fall in the range of $1500 to $2500.

  Maintenance costs are decreasing, too. Modular
  components make notebooks easier to repair, notes
  Micron's White.

  Spindler cites a 1995 Intel study that put the cost of
  ownership and support of a notebook at about $4000. In
  1998, that cost had dropped to $600, a change that
  prompted Intel to evaluate its own mix, Spindler says.
  Over the next two years, the company will move the
  majority of its workers to notebooks.


  Still a Challenge

  One area in which price continues to plague notebooks
  is LCDs. Expensive thin-film transistor displays are the
  single largest reason notebook prices have failed to fall
  further, experts say. White says he expects a change
  by mid-2000, when two more companies enter the LCD
  market. Supplies will increase, and prices will go down,
  he says.

  Reynolds is less optimistic about that time frame. He
  expects competition from manufacturers of high-priced
  LCD desktop displays will keep notebook prices high
  until the end of 2000. However, by 2001 he expects
  "quite a dramatic price drop."

  Reynolds doesn't deny business users' movement
  toward notebooks, but says he lacks hard figures.

  "I'm not ready to agree that there is a fundamental
  shift," he says. But he's collecting data now that
  should shed some definitive light on the topic. And he
  points to a factor that may have some effect: the
  introduction of Windows 2000.

  The new operating system could cause companies to
  either embrace or reject notebooks, he says. On the
  one hand, it's a more notebook-friendly operating
  system. Its more robust mobile features include
  improved suspend-and-resume functions. But the
  improved stability will encourage people to push their
  systems harder, he says. If notebooks can't keep up
  with desktops, people won't choose mobile PCs
  anymore.


  Meanwhile, Back Home ...

  The bottom line continues to keep the average home
  PC customer from springing for a notebook. Very few
  vendors can yet offer a consumer-friendly, sub-$1000
  notebook that offers great performance. Since you can
  get a pretty good home PC for much less, it's a tough
  sell.

  Low-end desktop manufacturer eMachines introduced a
  new $999 notebook in November, but had to
  compromise to drop the price. The unit uses a
  passive-matrix display, instead of the easier-to-read
  TFT displays of more expensive notebooks.

  The top-tier notebook manufacturers don't want to
  make the compromises necessary to get the prices
  down that low, says HP's McMahon. "Quality is very
  important." HP's least-expensive OmniBook notebook
  sells for about $1299, he says.

  Prices will continue to drop, however, says AMD's
  Martin. Combine that with better performance and
  features that people want (like DVD), and more
  consumers will buy, he predicts.

  And he suggests that manufacturers catch the buyer's
  eye.

  "More design changes will make notebooks more
  attractive," Martin adds. The tasty flavors of Apple's
  portable iMacs continue to whet the appetite. It could
  be enough to make notebooks a satisfying meal.