The 13 Steps to Investing
Foolishly
Step 8:
Get Information on Great Companies
"Looking for great individual stocks to research and invest
in is no more difficult than studying the companies that provide great
products or services in your life. Wall Street professionals trapped forty
stories up in Manhattan may get overpaid to do just this, using a variety
of tools, but then in contests against a chimpanzee armed with a finger
(and some stocks symbols to point at), the pros often lose. 'The Wall Street
Journal' runs a regular contest that demonstrates this, pitting expert
stock pickers against stocks chosen randomly via the dart and a board,
and the dartboard often wins. Nor will these experts at big investment
firms win in competition with you, Fool." -- The Motley Fool Investment
Workbook
Once you feel prepared to graduate from simple and mechanical forms of
investing (index funds and the Dow approaches), your next step will be
picking stocks on your own. You'll need to learn what kinds of companies
to seek out and then you'll have to evaluate them, to make sure they're
moving in the right direction and are worthy of your trust.
Mechanical Stock Screens
Let's spend a little time discussing how you might zero in on promising
companies. With more than 9,000 publicly traded firms out there, the field
of possible investments can be daunting and confusing.
One handy tool for investors is the stock screen. A stock screen is
basically picking a measure or two, and running the entire world of stocks
through those measures to see how many and which ones meet your criteria.
For example, you could screen all stocks for those with a dividend above
4%. Or for those with annual revenues of $5 billion or more and net profit
margins of at least 10%. You get the idea.
Another example of a stock screen is looking for a stock with a price
of at least $7 per share, sales and earnings growth of at least 25%, $500
million or less in sales, and insider holdings of 10% or more. Seems like
a natural idea, right? Just kidding. Actually, these are a few of the criteria
on which we base our own Foolish 8 stock screen spreadsheet, which is a
good place to start if you're looking to invest in "small cap" stocks,
which we'll get into more later.
Now, should you go out and immediately buy the stocks that pop up through
your screen? Not at all. At least not without further research. But screens
can be an effective way to reduce your contenders from thousands of stocks
to perhaps dozens. We have an area of Da Fool dedicated 24/7 to examining
and explaining stock screens.
Other Screens
Screens can be even simpler. For example, a basic screen might be to
ask yourself, "What products or services do I (and most people I know)
use all the time and like a lot? What companies make them?" Your brain
can perform this type of screen all by itself, and we'll help get it started:
McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Gillette, General Motors, Wal-Mart, AT&T, Black
& Decker and Federal Express are possibilities. Not a bad bunch of
companies. If you were to take this list and study the companies further,
you'd probably end up with quite a few very promising investments.
Another uncomplicated way to find interesting companies is through the
news. If you hear that Costco is coming out with an exciting and innovative
new kind of store, it might be a good time to take a close look at it.
If a company announces that it's recalling a product and its stock drops
20% on the news, you might do well to investigate whether the market has
overreacted. If so, this could be a good time to invest in the company
(providing that it was and is a strong and growing company, with its financial
house in order).
Other places to come up with starting points could be from the Fool's
News area, which features a well-known company debated weekly in Dueling
Fools. The Strategies area features evaluations and discussions of numerous
other smaller and lesser-known companies. Check it out sometime if you're
interested, but for now, let's assume that you've found a few companies
you're interested in and you want to learn more about them.
Gathering Information
No right-minded Fool (and what other kind is there, really?) would think
of buying a stock based merely on cocktail party chatter, a broker's recommendation,
or even a message board overflowing with exuberance. Even if the stock
is one you discovered on your own, you shouldn't just run out and buy shares.
First get your hands on the company's financial information, and get to
know the situation thoroughly.
It's easier than ever to get information for companies listed on U.S.
exchanges. Below we list the telephone numbers for each of the three big
players. Just call and ask for the company's phone number. (Your local
librarian should be able to help you get the number, as well.)
Nasdaq
(Over-the-Counter): |
202.496.2500 |
AMEX
(American Stock Exchange): |
212.306.1490 |
NYSE
(New York Stock Exchange): |
212.656.3218 |
Give your company a call and ask for the "Investor Relations" department
and request an "investor information packet." A full packet contains the
following, all of which you would want and should ask for:
The Annual Report (most recent)
-
The 10-K (most recent)
-
The 10-Q (most recent)
-
Press releases (all recent ones)
-
Analysts' reports (any available up-to-date ones)
By the way -- are you wondering what all this is going to cost you? Nothing
more than a holiday bottle of wine for your postal carrier who'll be delivering
all the packets you order. These packets are free!
But, hey, let's face it -- you're online, and nowadays, this is really
the place to do the best research. You can get a substantial amount of
this information online. You can acquire all recent SEC filings, including
company 10-Ks and 10-Qs, without ever leaving your keyboard. All you need
to know is a company's ticker symbol, and you can acquire news, financial
snapshots, and estimates of future earnings. Whoops, maybe we're getting
ahead of ourselves with that kind of talk. Sorry. But keep reading and
we'll explain.
Learning About the Company
You've got the company's information packet. Let's have a look. The
first thing you'll want to do is scan everything in order to get a sense
of the company's mission, its products, its attitude, and its prospects.
Let's take a Foolish example.
Say you're an ice cream aficionado who's decided to sort through your
favorite industry for potential investments. Let's further assume that
while you love ice cream, you have a particular affection for Sal and Harry's
Froosh, an irresistible all-natural fruit ice that is mixed, frozen, and
distributed out of the company's headquarters in Bastrop, Louisiana. You
have called Bastrop to request the information from Sal and Harry's Froosh,
and now it's arrived.
The annual report will probably feature some glossy photos of Sal and
Harry standing next to Froosh-making machinery. In the back, as with every
annual report, you'll find more boring-looking financial statements. (Once
you become a seasoned investor, these pages will actually be the most exciting
ones to you.) There are three main financial statements included:
The Income Statement (or Statement of Operations)
-
The Balance Sheet
-
The Statement of Cash Flows
The easiest of the three is the income statement, which shows how much
money the company made over the last year and its profit margins. Next
up is the balance sheet, revealing how much cash, inventories, and debt
the company has. The third and most complex is the statement of cash flows,
revealing how much money the company is really making, as it works through
operations, makes investments, and borrows money.
When studying a company's financial statements, you should be able to
determine how quickly sales are growing, how the company is financing its
growth, whether it has taken on too much debt, how efficiently it's collecting
its accounts receivable,
It's
easier than ever to get information for companies listed on U.S. exchanges.
|
how much profit it's making on its products and
services, and all kinds of fascinating things like that. You should also
be paying attention to trends, to see if the firm's financial health is
improving or declining. And finally, it's best to compare companies with
their industry peers to see how they stack up.
These financial statements will also appear in the 10-Q and 10-K reports.
The 10-K is issued once a year, along with the annual report, while 10-Qs
are issued three times a year, at the end of the intervening quarters.
The 10-Q summarizes the company's quarterly performance. The 10-K is dedicated
to a company's financials, not its story, and thus includes information
you simply won't find in most annual reports, like insider stock holdings
and brief biographies of the management team. The latter is of extreme
interest to a Fool. We love to read about how the company chairman filed
for personal bankruptcy in 1989, or graduated from our college.
Press releases are an even more frequent source of information on your
company, and should be read and followed by hands-on investors. Those who
prefer to keep up less frequently with their stocks can usually safely
ignore press releases, and just catch the quarterly reports. Of course,
this works much better with safer, bigger companies; if you own volatile
small-cap growth stocks that move radically based on info in press releases,
it behooves you to plug into these things. Do keep in mind, of course,
that press releases in general tend to put a positive spin on news, since
they're issued by the company.
Analyst Reports
Most companies have been examined and analyzed by one or more financial
analysts. These professionals, most often employees of brokerage houses,
will write reports that include the analyst's opinion of the stock as well
as estimates of future earnings and other prognostications. This information
is public. Assuming the company whose financial packet you've received
has an analyst following it, one of these reports might be included in
the packet. (If not, the company will provide you with analyst names and
phone numbers, so you can call and make your own request.) Reading analyst
reports is a truly useful exercise. (However, there's one part of it that
the analyst and the Wise media think is Very Important, and yet is virtually
meaningless -- the Buy, Sell or Hold "recommendation.")
For a Fool, some of the most valuable information in the report are
the estimated earnings per share figures. (The better reports print estimates
quarter-by-quarter.) By matching the analyst's quarterly estimates against
the quarterly earnings announcements as they come out, investors can determine
whether a business and its profits per share are meeting, exceeding, or
underperforming analysts' expectations.
We at The Motley Fool love getting our hands on analyst reports, recognizing
that analysts know a fair amount about how to evaluate a particular company's
prospects for growth. Hey, it's their full-time job. And while we don't
accept every assertion made by any analyst, we think that confronting their
analyses is a key ingredient to sharpening our understanding of the story
of our companies.
That's the good side to analysts' opinions. (Red Alert. Red Alert. Fool
attack coming. All Wise men of Wall Street prepare to be fired upon.)
We do NOT advise you to pay attention to the analysts' ratings on securities,
whether "Strong Buy," "Buy," "Accumulate," "Attractive," "Speculative Hold,"
whatever. These subjective judgments may be slanted according to a blatant
and unapologetic conflict of interest that exists in the brokerage industry.
The same firms whose ANALYSIS you're reading ALSO have built their businesses
upon FINANCING the companies they're analyzing. Thus, you won't be surprised
to hear that the first buy recommendations you'll typically read about
a new company that just came public will virtually always appear from the
very same firm or firms that underwrote the public offering. (Hmmmm...)
Further, and more importantly, if the brokerage firm analyst were ever
to put an outright SELL recommendation on a given company's stock, that
company would probably never again consider doing any financing business
with the analyst's firm. Thus, you'll almost never see a SELL recommendation
from Wall Street. In fact, Wall Street analysts who see a stock selling
at $10, which they predict will go down to $5, will still often call their
rating of the company "Neutral" rather than "Sell." Next:
Evaluating Businesses
In response to this situation, we at the Motley Fool are now providing
an alternative to the analyst reports of Wall Street. Through our our bi-monthly
Internet Report, our year-end Industry Focus, and our stock research
reports, the Fool is producing research that is free of any conflicts of
interest or inside-the-Street code words (like "Hold" really means "sell
now"). If you're interested in some money-back-if-you're-not-totally-satisfied
Foolish research, check our what we offer.
Now that you've gathered the information you need, it's on to what to
do with it.